NEWS
01-12
Is the surge of lithium battery supported by concept or real market? How long can lithium battery enterprises continue to thrive?
From the perspective of the large cycle, it is a major trend for new energy to replace fuel vehicles. Under the clear goal of 2030 carbon peak and 2060 carbon neutrality in China, developing clean energy and popularizing electric vehicles are important measures to achieve carbon neutrality in the field of transportation and travel. In this context, it is an irreversible trend for electricity to replace traditional fossil energy, and for green electricity (solar energy, wind power) to replace thermal power (coal combustion). The sustained growth of electric vehicles is also a definite long-term trend.
In 2020, there will be about 4 million electric vehicles in China. In March of this year, Zhang Yongwei, vice president and secretary general of the China Electric Vehicle 100 People's Association, said that it was predicted that China's electric vehicle ownership would be in the scale range of 80 million vehicles around 2030.
From 400 to 8000, there will be a 20-fold growth in 8 years. There are few industries with such a large span of growth space.
With the determined high growth of electric vehicles, lithium battery enterprises will also maintain high growth for a long time in the future. This is logically OK.
From the perspective of small cycle, the problem of battery shortage will continue in the next three to five years, and lithium battery enterprises will continue to be in a relatively strong position. There was a rumor before that He Xiaopeng had spent a week in the Ningde era in order to get the battery. Although he was denied by himself, it was an indisputable fact that the car company lacked the battery.
At the end of January this year, Musk said that the only factor limiting the production capacity of Tesla's first pure electric truck was battery supply. In March, Li Bin, founder of Weilai, also mentioned that battery supply would be the biggest bottleneck compared with chips.
Research predicts that by 2023, the global demand for power batteries for electric vehicles will reach 406 GWH, while the supply of power batteries is expected to be 335 GWH, with a gap of about 18%. By 2025, the gap between supply and demand will expand by about 40%.
The shortage of batteries means that battery enterprises will have a strong voice for a long period of time, which is good for practitioners.